Is it Human or is it AI
The Future Does Not Fit in the Containers of the Past. Edition 142.
12 Months of Progress of AI responding to the same prompt for an image on Mid-Journey.
Remember the Memorex Cassette tape ad with Ella Fitzgerald where Ella recorded on Memorex still shattered the wine glass? When one heard her voice was it live Ella or was it taped Ella?
Today we cannot tell whether AI generated images are real or not.
See above for the AI generated image using the same prompt one year apart.
These are not photographs but machine generated images created by mixing and merging data using text prompts
See below for another example.
If Force is equal to Mass x Acceleration with AI we are seeing Mass in hundreds of billions of dollars of investment globally and acceleration of doubling capabilities sometimes within three months. For instance Chat GPT which is GPT 3.5 scored on the 10th Percentile in the Law School Test. Six months later GPT 4 scored in the 90th percentile! Moore’s law of the processor age of doubling capability every 18 months is so snail like slow compared to what we are seeing.
AI is a Force that appears to me to be more impactful than the World Wide Web and the iPhone multiplied by 2.
Three years ago Sinead Bovell a model wrote an article in Vogue predicting that AI would take her job. That time she believes is here.
Earlier this week she was on the a16z podcast along with Danny Postma and if you are in any part of the marketing, creative, production, e-commerce or media business take a listen.
In this episode, Sinead Bovell and Danny Postma discuss the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on the world of modeling, online creation, and self-representation.
From the rise of AI-generated photos to the democratization of creativity, they discuss the potential of AI in shaping the future of digital expression.
If you want to try these tools click below for Danny Postma’s projects.
https://www.postcrafts.com/
Below is just one of more than two dozen projects and tools
The economics of these new tools and the ultra- reality and speed of the output will unleash some of the biggest tsunami’s in the creative and production industries starting now. This is not the future. The future is here.
Every leading firm is already incorporating these tools into their workflow to build upon and add value.
Deepfake Videos driven by AI.
An amazingly fun (and disturbing since it looks and sounds so real) video of Satya Nadella putting Gates, Balmer as well as other Indian tech CEO’s in their place and ending with the following rap was released a few hours ago:
“Because this fella,
Satya Nadela,
the rocket propella,
will take Microsoft Interstella.”
Click below or here to watch….you will both be amazed, terrified and possibly pass out laughing…
MSFT CEO Satya Nadella : I am the superior Indian tech CEO
AI Clones
The WSJ tech reporter cloned her voice and image and sent her avatar into interviews to confirm her security to JP Morgan Chase and into meetings.
The Avatar succeeded some times and failed at other times.
Watch the video above or click this link:
But as we saw with the AI imagery advancements in the past year, the speed of enhancement and improvement is such that it will be less than a year before we may ask:
Is it live or is it AI?
AI and the Creative Arts
The New York Time had an incredibly interesting article ( also read the comments in the comments section) that must be read in its entirety to understand how AI is not just going to impact finance, tech, accounting and other left brained, quantitative, mechanical and mathematical industries but the very heart of creativity and storytelling!
Here are four paragraphs from the article that snapped me to attention:
“It is not out of the realm of possibility that before 2026, which is the next time we will negotiate with these companies, they might just go, ‘you know what, we’re good,’” said Mike Schur, the creator of “The Good Place” and co-creator of “Parks and Recreation.” “We don’t need you,” he imagines hearing from the other side. “We have a bunch of A.I.s that are creating a bunch of entertainment that people are kind of OK with.”
In December, Apple introduced a service allowing book publishers to use human-sounding A.I. narrators, an innovation that could displace hundreds of voice actors who make a living performing audiobooks. The company’s website says the service will benefit independent authors and small publishers. Other actors fear that studios will use A.I. to replicate their voices while cutting them out of the process. “We’ve seen this happening — there are websites that have popped up with databases of characters’ voices from video games and animation,” said Linsay Rousseau, an actress who makes her living doing voice work.
SAG-AFTRA, the actors’ union, says more of its members are flagging contracts for individual jobs in which studios appear to claim the right to use their voices to generate new performances. A recent Netflix contract sought to grant the company free use of a simulation of an actor’s voice “by all technologies and processes now known or hereafter developed, throughout the universe and in perpetuity.”
On-camera actors point out that studios already use motion capture or performance capture to replicate artists’ movements or facial expressions. The 2018 blockbuster “Black Panther” relied on this technology for scenes that depicted hundreds of tribespeople on cliffs, mimicking the movements of dancers hired to perform for the film. Some actors worry that newer versions of the technology will allow studios to effectively steal their movements, “creating new performance in the style of a wushu master or karate master and using that person’s style without consent,”
There is a lot more in the article including a strident defense of the superiority of emotion and the unique ability of humans to have ideas in the article.
But we ain’t seen anything yet….watch for text to video and much more
Prompt to Text is GPT. Prompt to Image is Mid-Journey/Dall-E2 and more. Now Prompt to Video!
Runway ML is a company that is a pioneer in this area. Click on the video above and you will not believe your eyes as to what is now possible with AI.
The ability of individuals to produce pretty high quality video’s with current technology is just a start. The tools are getting far better, far easier to use and far cheaper to access.
But wait that video of Gen 1 was 2 months ago which is a lifetime in AI time. Gen 2 is out and here an example from earlier this week of video completely made from text prompts except for one shot.
For an example of the rate of change and quality of what is possible read this tweet:
It is called The Great Catspy!
Click here for the video or the link below:
https://twitter.com/ChristianF369/status/1651607149804498946?s=20
The Future is Human Plus AI.
Everything I have shared is what I read or discovered in my “learning hour” this morning ( as people know I believe if you are not spending an hour a day learning it is game over for most of us regardless of our experience, status or seniority.)
I am convinced that AI is moving faster and deeper across more industries than we can imagine and it will impact everybody’s job in some way small or medium in 2023 and will begin to have a significant impact in 2024.
History suggests that every advance in technology places a premium on superior ability and talent will matter. However what talent does will shift as technology changes the nature of jobs and industries. There clearly will be a lot of creative destruction and many wonder if it will only be creative destruction versus new industries, new jobs and new opportunities.
While the future is hard to predict there is no doubt that AI can make all of us more productive by 10% or more right away and unleash break throughs in medicine and several sciences. It also will provide more people with more tools and canvases to tell more stories in new ways.
It will help us grow as long as we grow our learning alongside these advancements.
Facing Up To The Future: On the latest What Next? Andrew Curry, Director of The School of International Futures. Andrew shares some helpful approaches used by futurists to improve business outcomes, considers how his own work has changed over the past 20 years, and talks about developing futurist capabilities in the next generation of leaders.
Rishad Tobaccowala helps turbo-charge companies, teams and leaders growth by helping them see, think and feel differently about what lies ahead and how they and their organizations can prepare and thrive! Forty years of experience delivered fast and flexibly with no muss, no fuss, no BS and no handlers. For more about Rishad Tobaccowala click here.
Thank you for another interesting & insightful article. As you have emphasized, AI has already been helping us in many ways and now it's trying to simulate creativity. Maybe the first motion pictures 150 years ago were also just as revolutionary and exciting. But will AI ever be able to design the next Webb telescope, or even inspire children to be more compassionate and caring to others?
I've known you way too long to take any of your future views lightly. This week's essay tapped my deepest anxieties. The gut punch came at the end: "I am convinced that AI is moving faster and deeper across more industries than we can imagine and it will impact everybody’s job in some way small or medium in 2023 and will begin to have a significant impact in 2024." --- The system we call Democracy is under a lot of stress. The foundation of Democracy is voters. The system counts votes with remarkable accuracy but, the manipulation of votes using misinformation BEFORE the voter reaches the ballot box is a dangerous sport. Historically, politicians had to tread carefully because voters have good instincts for recognizing bullshit. The voter's skill is already being overwhelmed in the modern era where "news" is a concept that needs quotes around it. This Sunday's essay brought home that the first presidential election where Generative AI is able to fool every voter about everything is next year's election. I thought maybe we would have a few years to think this through. Now, I doubt it. I know the skills of the best political strategists all too well - there is no possible way that these incredibly talented but shamelessly committed people are already exploring every tool described here today. God help us.