Strategic Reset: The 7 Interconnected Forces.

The Future Does Not Fit in the Containers of the Past.Edition 284.

Image by Ben Damiano for The Rethinking Work Platform

Strategy is “future competitive advantage”.

As the contours of the future are being reshaped, every individual and firm should revisit their own strategy in light of seven interconnected forces.

These forces impact everything from affordability to politics to the future of work and to the outlook and challenges for every industry.

The Seven forces are AI, American Aspiration, Bio-Pharmaceuticals, China, Demographics, Energy and Immigration.

Image by Ben Damiano for The Rethinking Work Platform

1. AI: Alien Intelligence (a far more apt name than Artificial Intelligence) in 2026 will surprise with its speed and impact on every job and every business. For those believing it will be a year or two before one sees the impact on the financial contours of business two developments this past week which were 1) the integration of Google Gemini into all parts of the Google eco-system and the integration of its open shopping protocol with Walmart, Shopify and others and 2) the launch of Claude Cowork quantum jumped the rate of change. AI is still under-hyped.

Source: Claude from Anthropic

2. American Aspiration: Whether one likes it or not America along with China dominates the world. These two countries account for nearly half of global GDP and almost all of modern AI, Bio-Pharma, and Energy innovation in the world. The total GDP of the next 8 countries ( Germany, India, Japan, UK, France, Italy, Canada and Brazil) combined are that of the US and just over half of the US and China combined. America is now beginning to leverage its weight on its own behalf. And China is unstoppable. This reality is making the EU rethink its past assumptions and structures while creating new partnerships between all the other countries in the world looking to reduce their dependency on the two giants.

Source: Claude from Anthropic

3. Unstoppable China: I have travelled to 23 cities in China and spent a lot of time with regional leaders who reinforced their belief that China would regain its place as the world’s most important country. They would do this by never repeating what they believed was the mistake of two hundred years ago when they fell behind in technology. China today in many areas has caught up with and is leapfrogging even American technological prowess.

The chart above shows their leadership in electric vehicles, solar and manufacturing.

Keep in mind that a large part of the future of AI is Physical AI which which will include robotics which needs manufacturing acumen and not just software wizardry. And manufacturing is a Chinese specialty.

China is no longer just a fast follower or copy cat innovator but now leads in many areas of primary and pioneering research.

From the Seoul Economic Daily last week:

Chinese universities are dominating the top ranks in global university rankings based on research output, a shift from the early 2000s when American institutions held all top 10 positions.

In the early 2000s (2006-2009), seven American universities ranked in the global top 10 according to Leiden University’s methodology, with Harvard University in first place. At that time, Zhejiang University was the only Chinese institution on the list, ranked 25th.

However, in the 2020-2023 compilation, Harvard fell to third place, losing the top spot to Zhejiang University. Notably, eight of the top 10 positions are now held by Chinese universities. Harvard is currently the only American university in the top 10. Zhejiang University is the alma mater of Liang Wenfeng, founder of DeepSeek, the Chinese artificial intelligence company that has shocked the global tech industry.

Chinese pride is also making many Chinese forgo western brands for local brands which is creating havoc with many western companies including the automobile and cosmetic categories who placed all significant bets on China. Last year Luckin Coffee overtook Starbucks in China forcing it to spin off its business.

Source: Claude from Anthropic.

4. Energy: Energy has always been key factor in the economy of countries which was reflected most recently in the US and Venezuela encounter. India has been careful to stay neutral on Ukraine since it is an oil hungry country and needs to buy Russian oil at lower prices. The Saudis recognize that fossil fuels are not the future and are diversifying into tourism and technology to prepare for the future.

Energy is a key force that interlocks with other forces.

The chart above shows the interlocking of Energy, with the previous 3 forces of AI, American Aspiration and Unstoppable China.

A key input for all the data centers that will be critical to AI is going to be electricity. China today produces 32 percent of all global electricity and 2.5 times the electricity produced by the United States. This cheap electricity combined with open weighted models driving Deep Seek, Qwen and other other Chinese foundational models might provide a long term edge vs. US foundational models.

The drive for energy is increasing electricity prices in the US and creating backlash against the construction of huge data centers in many communities which in turn impacts politics in the US.

Source: Claude from Anthropic

5. Bio-Pharmaceuticals: 20 percent of US households have used GLP-1 and now with the availability of availability in a pill form ( vs. injection) it is likely that in a few years up to half of all US households will be on GLP-1. In many ways the reduction in obesity due to the use of GLP-1 will have a positive impact on health care but also create new challenges and for the entire food industry, including fast food restaurants.

But GLP-1 is but one of many major breakthroughs and changes coming. Combine AI, Bio-Tech and modern Pharmaceuticals and we have the age of Bio-Pharma. It is important to remember that the Co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind, Sir Demis Hassabis, and Google DeepMind Director, Dr. John Jumper were co-awarded the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their work developing AlphaFold, a groundbreaking AI system that predicts the 3D structure of proteins from their amino acid sequences.

While many of us maybe fixated on AI’s impact on helping us create better content and more impactful marketing, all of this is a side show to the great ambition of AI which are in the world of medicine where drug discovery and personalized medicine are being accelerated and in manufacturing via physical AI ie. Robotics including surgical robots.

Source: Claude from Anthropic

6. Demographics: Something as old school as demographics can explain a lot of what is going on in any country. The above chart shows how older Americans are growing as a share of population and how they are now dominating wealth in the US. Those over 65 have doubled from 9.8 percent to 17.3 percent of the US population over the past five decades and now those 60 plus control 65% of all American wealth! They now have 47x the wealth of someone under 35 up from 10x five decades ago. If money speaks then it has the voice of older people. While many marketers and politicians focus on younger folks the money is with seasoned.

Breakthroughs in Bio-Pharma as well as Robotics driven by AI may postpone the great wealth transfer from Baby Boomers to millennials and GenZ as more people live into their 90’s and beyond. This is particularly true for wealthy people who have access to the very best medical care.

Their success in generating wealth explains why 66 percent of Baby Boomers believe in capitalism. On the other hand, only 22 percent of Gen-Z believe in capitalism as they find themselves struggling to get and keep jobs, buy property or pay off their education debts. Two thirds of GenZ who have a full time job have a side gig or side hustle to make money and maximize optionality. In many cases, they see their main job as venture capital money to fund their own business with 72 percent of GenZ wishing to work for themselves.

There are many demographic factors impacting the future,but globally the growth of older people and their wealth is one of two major factors. The other one is the impending decline in population in wealthy countries which is depicted below:

Source: Claude from Anthropic

7. Immigration: Everywhere in the world immigration is a critical issue whether it comes to politics, availability of workers, prices of housing and much more. One chart that may provide a sense of the future of immigration is above.

In every advanced economy, population is set to decline. It takes 2.1 children per woman to keep the population the same in any country. Today South Korea, Japan and China are suffering significant population declines and are likely to have half their current populations thirty or so years from now.

All of Europe is well below replacement rate to keep the population the same. The range in Europe spans from a low of 1.1 children per woman in Malta to a high of 1.8 in France. The number for the EU overall is 1.4.

In the US there are 1.6 births per women which is well under the replacement rate and the only reason the population remains stable is because of immigrants and longer lives. The US is now set to becomes an aging and shrinking country without immigration. Today as Japan ages and shrinks it will increasingly need to depend on robotics to replace workers and care givers or be more open to immigrants. France is trying to increase the age for pension eligibility reflecting its aging and declining population combined with a back lash against immigrants. This challenge will accelerate with bio-pharma extending the age of people and the increased rise of nationalist parties.

Image by Ben Damiano for The Rethinking Work Platform

Everything is Connected: These 7 forces and their interconnection should be front and center for every company and for every individual developing their future strategy. From politics to affordability to positioning careers to how power ebbs and flows can all be clarified by looking through the prism of these seven forces.

The Auto industry is impacted by American Aspiration in the form of tariffs, by Unstoppable China via reduced sales in China as BYD and other local companies dominate the market and now expand to Asia and Europe, by AI and Energy which changes the basic technology of cars.

Similarly Education is impacted by the personal tutoring made possible by AI, the loss of international students due to a clamp down in Immigration.

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.” William Shakespeare.

The seven interlocking forces are the tides of change.

Rishad Tobaccowala helps leaders see, think and feel differently about how to grow themselves, their teams and their businesses in a world of tectonic change. 100 of the best pieces of Rishad Tobaccowala’s thinking here (all free).