The Great Separation/Reaggregation of Work.

The Future Does Not Fit in the Containers of the Past.Edition 238.

In the distant past, if one wanted to listen to music one had to go to where the musicians and the musical instruments were. The music, the musician, the musical instruments and the listeners were in the same place at the same time.

With recorded music the first separation occurred with music being able to be listened to where the phonograph was located and could be listened to at any time as long one had the disc. This was usually in the home since the equipment was heavy.

As time moved on the listening device got smaller and more mobile, first with radio and then the breakthrough technology of the Sony Walkman.

The final separation occurred when the device and the music were separated as well as every song was separated from the song next to it on an album

The individual song or piece of music was a digital file in a cloud but we now re-aggregate these songs into playlists based on our preference, mood, genre and many other ways.

Today music is streamed and listened to via a playlist either curated by us or by an algorithm.

This also is true for most media with linear television increasingly be replaced by streaming on demand television, the magazine being replaced by articles discovered via search and streams, and much knowledge and content made free and re-aggregated by the Chat GPT’s and Gemini’s of the world.

This process of music and other media separating from physical space, from device and from the content next to it is also well underway in the world of work.

We are moving to a world where a majority of work in white collar industries will be separated from physical space, and from “jobs”.

Companies will separate the components of a “job” into tasks and then allocate these tasks to a portfolio of resources that can get these tasks completed.

Some tasks will be allocated to full time employees, some to fractionalized employees, some to free-lancers, some to other companies and some to AI. These resources will be distributed everywhere in the world.

This has been happening for many decades but until recently for most industries has been a minority of the way work was allocated.

But now with a) nearly a third of work being done remotely, b) demographic change of declining populations and aging populations placing pressure on access to talent, c) two thirds of Gen-Z wanting to work for themselves, d) the continued rise and access of marketplaces (AWS, Shopify, Deel, Etsy, Uber) that allows access to buyers, producers and sellers and e) the rise of side hustles and gigs, a majority of work will be separated from full time jobs by the end of the decade.

And of course the great separation of tasks from jobs and for people working full time for an employer will turbocharged by AI which is driving the greatest efficiency and effectiveness drive that the world has ever seen. Just look at Meta’s growing revenue and rapidly declining head count as an early indication of what is underway.

This new world will allow companies to be deeply agile, manage costs, access expertise on demand, become global at launch and in most industries scale coverage and delivery with limited need for full time employees. Companies that fixate on expensive real estate, five days a week in the office, limit talent pools to certain geographies and insist on a zone of control over talent will be left in the dust by the new companies just like a swarm of drones and other technologies leaves the large lumbering aircraft carrier less and less relevant.

These trends will create many billion dollar revenue companies with fewer than 100 full time employees and will create significant opportunities but also many challenges to individuals, companies and societies.

Looking ahead we can expect

a) most companies having far fewer full time employees.

b) there will be more opportunities to work and employment as more new businesses are created to serve the new needs and new industries AI and other technologies will make possible.

c) However much of this employment will be people being paid to do tasks, projects and gigs versus a full time job.

Many companies with full time employees will replace a large portion of jobs with tasks by leveraging platforms and systems to allocate their talent to wherever in the world they may be. Bosses will be augmented by ongoing mentors and shorter term project leaders.

This movement will create great challenges when it comes to societies where healthcare has been tied to full time jobs and also for the variation in income when most peoples costs are fixed and not variable.

It will also however create great opportunities for people to work in ways that fit their life and skills and allow them to diversify income streams versus being dependent on one job and a firm especially now the social contract between employee and firm is diminishing and mostly gone.

Everybody needs to think of themselves as a company of one by honing expertise, continuous learning, building a reputation and being a great collaborator and connector.

For companies and leaders it will require significant rethinking of everything from what how one leads today to organizational design and even the strategy of the firm.

Consulting companies like McKinsey and BCG and the Entertainment Industry operate in this way to a large degree. Consultants build particular expertise and are reaggregated with other consultants to execute assignments for Clients. Artists, writers, directors, caterers, gaffers, all work from gig to gig ( movie, show, event).

This new world of work is well underway but many are struggling with what the future will hold.

But the future is here and we will have to adapt to it because it will not adapt to us.

The decline of full time jobs and the rise of careers built around reaggregating tasks is what we should all prepare for.

Its time to rethink work both as talent and as leaders.

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